Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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升不上跌不下

Monday, July 8, 2024 Views536

港股上周止跌回升,恆指曾經重越18000,上周四最高見你到18133,可惜未能企穩18000以上。周五收報17800,但相對前周仍上升81點,升幅0.5%。國指和科指按周分別上升0.8%和0.6%。滬深股市三大指數上周表現分化,上證綜指按周上升2.9%,但深證成指和滬深300按周卻分別下跌1.7%和0.9%。滬深股市成交持續萎縮,上周三至周五,兩市成交額連續三日低於6000億元。經濟數據方面,財新6月中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)升至51.8,較5月上升0.1個百分點,創逾3年高,表現優於官方製造業PMI(連續兩個月處於萎縮區間),但財新6月中國服務業(PMI)為51.2,比5月大幅下降了2.8個百分點,降至去年11月以來最低,反映經濟前景仍欠明朗。

反觀美股卻維持強勢,標準普爾500指數和納指不斷創出新高。三大指數上周均上升,道指和標普500指數按周分別上升0.7%和2%,納指周升幅更達到3.5%,是自4月26日以來的最好表現。上周公布的美國經濟數大都差於市場預期,提升了聯儲局九月減息的機率。其中,6月ADP私營機構就業人數增加15萬人,低於預期的16.5萬人;上周首領失業救濟金人數升至23.8萬人,高於市場預期的23.5萬人;6月非農就業人口新增職位回落至20.6萬,高於預期的19萬,但前值大幅下修至21.8萬;失業率由4%升至4.1%,高於市場預期4%。其他數據方面,5月工廠訂單按月跌0.5%,遠差於預期的上升0.2%。6月ISM服務指數由5月53.8急跌至48.8,遠低於預期的52.7。

說回港股,暫時既沒有重大利淡因素,也沒有重大利好,迭加成交萎縮,最近幾個交易日成交額都不足1000億元,缺乏上升動能,大市呈現跌不落升不上的格局,預料恆指將維持於17500和18300之間波動,等候突破。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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